The strategic housing plan for 2050, published this week by the National Economic Council, predicts that while the number of housing units required annually for the Haredi sector will more than double—from 13,500 units per year today to approximately 29,000 in 2050—the demand for housing among the non-Haredi Jewish population will decrease by 15%, from 35,600 units per year today to 30,500 in 2050.
By Doron Breutman and Nimrod Buso
The required housing stock to meet Israel’s residential needs is expected to increase by 62% by 2050, reaching 4.785 million units, according to the strategic housing plan released this week by the National Economic Council, which sets targets for 2050. According to the report, between 2026 and 2030, approximately 65,500 housing units will need to be added each year, a figure that is expected to increase gradually. Between 2046 and 2050, the annual housing stock will need to grow by 76,600 units.
The report, authored by a team led by economist David Badal, updates the last strategic housing plan from 2021, which set targets through 2040. A notable change in the new plan is the first-time segmentation of housing needs into three population groups: non-Haredi Jews, Haredi Jews, and the Arab sector.
Surprisingly, the number of housing units required for the non-Haredi Jewish population is projected to decline over the years. From 2026 to 2030, the council estimates a need for 35,630 units annually for this group, but between 2046 and 2050, this figure is expected to drop to 30,448 units per year—a 15% decrease. In contrast, the demand for Haredi housing will more than double over the same period, from 13,500 units annually today to 29,200 units per year between 2046 and 2050, representing a 116% increase. The Arab sector, according to the report, will see a relatively stable demand, ranging from 16,400 units per year today to approximately 17,000 per year by 2046-2050.
The Sharpest Growth Will Be in Judea and Samaria
Breaking it down by region, the highest increase in housing units is expected in Judea and Samaria, with a 152% growth rate, bringing the number of housing units in Jewish settlements in the area to 233,200 by 2050. A significant rise is also expected in the Jerusalem district, where the housing stock is projected to grow by 95% to 595,870 units. In contrast, in the Tel Aviv district, the housing stock is expected to grow by only 33%, reaching 769,230 units. The Central district is projected to have the largest number of housing units, reaching 1.15 million by 2050—a 58% increase compared to 2024.
These housing growth trends align with the population growth forecasts for 2050 from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). According to these projections, between 2022 and 2050, Israel’s population is expected to grow by 62%, reaching 15.68 million people. In Judea and Samaria, the Jewish population is expected to grow by 128%, reaching 1.08 million. The Jerusalem district is expected to grow by 79% to 2.22 million residents, while the Southern district will see an 88% increase, reaching 2.66 million. The Haifa district is expected to grow by 65%, reaching 1.855 million residents. The Central district is projected to increase by 54%, reaching 3.62 million, while the Northern district will grow by 40% to 2.16 million. The slowest growth is expected in Tel Aviv, where the population is projected to increase by 37%, reaching 2.069 million residents.
Tama 75 for Haifa Bay Renewal Alters Growth Distribution
The report’s authors, David Badal, Raoui Hilu, and Idan Bouzaglo, note that this publication updates the “Housing Strategy” scenario released in 2021, incorporating a methodological change that considers not only past trends and plans but also government decisions on planning and implementing national projects. One key update highlighted in the report is Tama 75, a national outline plan for the evacuation of Haifa Bay, which includes the addition of approximately 105,000 new housing units by 2080, expected to drive significant demographic growth, with an estimated 300,000–400,000 new residents in the Haifa metropolitan area.
Additionally, the report addresses the establishment of new Haredi-majority settlements in the Southern district, where approximately 35,000 new housing units will be built. “The development of settlements of this scale is expected to bring a significant shift in the geographic distribution of the Haredi population in Israel,” the report states.
